The group stage is over, and what a spectacle it has been. We’ve witnessed giant killings, surprise packages, heartbreak, and plenty of drama across all twelve groups. Some of my pre-tournament predictions have held up remarkably well, while others were completely blown apart by football’s unpredictable nature. That’s exactly why we love the World Cup—form and reputation only take you so far once the whistle blows.

After reviewing every group, it’s time to look back at what I got right, where I got it wrong, and how the knockout bracket is shaping up. With the Round of 32 now confirmed, I’ll also be making my predictions for every knockout tie and mapping out who I believe will reach the last 16.

Let’s dive into the final six groups before looking ahead to what promises to be a thrilling knockout stage.

Group G was one of my strongest predictions, as I got it absolutely spot on. I backed Belgium to finish first, Egypt second, Iran third, and New Zealand to finish bottom—and that’s exactly how it ended. Belgium showed their experience when it mattered, Egypt continued their impressive rise on the international stage, Iran did enough to qualify as one of the best third-placed teams, while New Zealand fought hard but ultimately came up short.

Group H was only slightly off. I correctly predicted Spain to top the group, and they once again showed why they’re among the favourites for the tournament. The surprise came with Cape Verde, who exceeded expectations to finish second ahead of Uruguay. Saudi Arabia competed well but couldn’t produce enough to progress. Credit has to go to Cape Verde, who were one of the biggest positive surprises of the group stage.

Group I was another perfect prediction. France comfortably finished top as expected, Norway claimed second place, and Senegal secured third, which was enough to reach the Round of 32. Iraq finished bottom despite showing moments of quality. France have looked solid without ever needing to reach top gear, while Norway’s attacking quality continues to make them a dangerous opponent.

Group J was another full marks for me. Argentina won the group exactly as predicted, Austria finished second, Algeria took third and also qualified, while the fourth-placed side couldn’t keep up with the quality ahead of them. Argentina continue to look like one of the strongest contenders for the trophy, while Algeria deserve credit for extending their World Cup journey.

Group K was another group where I was close, although Colombia proved stronger than I expected. They overtook Portugal to finish first, leaving Cristiano Ronaldo’s side to settle for second place. DR Congo impressed by finishing third and qualifying, while Uzbekistan ended bottom. Colombia have quietly become one of the tournament’s most impressive teams, and they’ll be a difficult opponent for anyone in the knockout rounds.

Finally, Group L finished exactly as I predicted. England topped the group, Croatia finished second, Ghana secured third place and qualification, while Panama ended bottom. It was another professional job by England, although tougher challenges now await them. Ghana also deserve enormous credit for progressing and continuing what has been a fantastic tournament for African football.

Looking back at all twelve groups, I’m happy with my overall predictions. There were a few surprises—Australia replacing Turkey, South Africa knocking out Czechia, and Cape Verde finishing ahead of Uruguay—but overall the tournament has gone largely as I expected.

One of the biggest stories has undoubtedly been Africa’s incredible performance. Nine of the ten African nations qualified for the Round of 32, an outstanding achievement that shows just how much the continent has grown in recent years. Their physicality, tactical discipline, and growing technical quality have made them one of the biggest success stories of this World Cup.

My Round of 32 predictions

Once the Round of 32 is complete, I’ll be back to see how many of these predictions survive. The group stage tested the analysis—now the knockout rounds will test the nerve. From this point on, one bad performance, one mistake, or one moment of magic can end a nation’s dream. Let’s see how many of these predictions come true.