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World Cup2026: Path to the Last Four Part 1

Let’s start with the group stage predictions. As always, there were some hits and some misses.

In Group A, my predictions were well off the mark, particularly regarding South Africa. Like many others, I expected them to finish bottom of the group, but they proved everyone wrong. On the final matchday, they secured a huge victory over South Korea, a team many considered one of the tournament’s potential dark horses. At least one of my predictions came true, with Mexico finishing top of the group. Czechia were a major disappointment and ultimately deserved nothing from this group. As for South Korea, their campaign has been extremely underwhelming, and they now have to rely on results elsewhere to determine whether they can progress.

Moving on to Group B, this was one prediction I got absolutely right. I backed Switzerland to top the group, and despite a slow and difficult start, they ultimately delivered. Canada, the host nation, finished second, which was largely expected given the quality within their squad and the advantage of playing at home. Meanwhile, Bosnia and Herzegovina put themselves in a strong position with their victory over Qatar and are now well placed to secure a spot in the Round of 32.

In Group C, it always felt like a two-horse race between Brazil and Morocco, and both sides lived up to expectations. Scotland once again showed flashes of quality and possess several talented players, but, much like England in previous tournaments, they fell short when it mattered most. They now face an anxious wait to see whether results elsewhere will keep their hopes alive. As for Haiti, despite the defeats, they represented their nation with pride, showing determination and spirit throughout the group stage, and can leave the tournament with their heads held high.

Group D couldn’t have gone more wrong. Like many football fans and pundits, I expected Turkey to top the group and be one of the tournament’s dark horses. Instead, they weren’t the dark horse—they were the dirt that comes out of the horse. I did get two things right, predicting that the USA and Paraguay would qualify, but the real surprise package of the group was Australia, who exceeded almost everyone’s expectations.

Group E was one of the groups where I was largely spot on, correctly predicting the teams that would progress. Germany impressed me going forward with their attacking play, but defensively they looked far from convincing. On current form, any team they face in the Round of 32 could cause them serious problems. I expected much more from Ecuador throughout the group stage, although they finally delivered when it mattered most in the final game. As for Ivory Coast, they were exactly what I expected—physical, disciplined, and always a difficult side to play against.

Group F lived up to my expectations. I had high hopes for Japan, the team I’m supporting in this tournament, and overall they didn’t disappoint. Despite missing their captain, Wataru Endō, and their star winger, Kaoru Mitoma, they showed resilience, delivered when it mattered, and deservedly progressed to the knockout stage. The Netherlands also advanced as expected. They’re a side that’s almost always in the mix at major tournaments, although tactically they can still be a little underwhelming under the legendary Ronald Koeman, despite the quality available in the squad.

So after 6 groups finished all their games I can feel comfortable about my analysis before the world cup on most of the predictions although some upsets, like with South Africa qualifying instead of Czechia and Australia instead of Turkey. As far as South Africans am happy for them as am a big fan of the country having visited it dozen times. I was gutted for Scotland because now their faith is in the hands of other teams.

Looking ahead to the Round of 32, one of the standout ties is Brazil vs. Japan. It’s a matchup that has all the ingredients to become one of the games of the tournament. On paper, history, individual brilliance, pedigree, and footballing tradition all favour Brazil. The Samba nation remains the benchmark of world football and is always among the favourites to lift the trophy.

But writing off Japan would be a mistake. This is a proud nation, inspired by the spirit and discipline of the legendary samurai, with a culture that has also given the world icons like Akira Kurosawa. That same commitment and attention to detail are reflected in their football.

Japan reached the knockout stage despite missing two key figures—captain Wataru Endō and star winger Kaoru Mitoma. Even without them, they’ve relied on relentless work rate, exceptional pace, tactical discipline, and a true collective team effort.

Brazil, meanwhile, is still the ultimate football nation, blessed with extraordinary talent in every generation. However, this isn’t the dominant Brazil of 1994 or the iconic world champions of 2002. They’re still one of the favourites, but they don’t possess the same aura of invincibility as those legendary squads.

I expect a match for the ages. I’ll be rooting for Japan, and I genuinely believe they have enough quality, organisation, and belief to get the job done. If they eliminate Brazil, I wouldn’t see it as a shocking upset—it would simply be the reward for a team that has consistently punched above its weight and played outstanding football throughout the tournament.

Another fascinating Round of 32 clash is Morocco vs. the Netherlands. On paper, the Dutch have the edge with their footballing pedigree, experience on the biggest stage, and a squad packed with quality. The Netherlands are perennial contenders, and while they can sometimes be tactically underwhelming under Ronald Koeman, they have the talent to beat anyone on their day.

But Morocco are far from underdogs to be dismissed. Since their remarkable run to the semi-finals of the 2022 World Cup, they’ve shown that their success was no fluke. They combine defensive discipline, technical quality, and relentless fighting spirit, making them one of the toughest teams to break down. They play with immense pride and have a passionate fan base that can turn any stadium into a home crowd.

The Netherlands may have the bigger names and the richer footballing history, but Morocco have proven time and again that they can compete with—and beat—the world’s elite. If the Dutch aren’t at their best, Morocco have every chance of punishing them.

I expect this to be a very tight contest that could be decided by a single moment of brilliance or a defensive mistake. While the Netherlands probably start as slight favourites because of their experience and squad depth, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Morocco progressed. They have the organisation, belief, and quality to make another deep run in the tournament.

Another confirmed Round of 32 matchup is USA vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina. On paper, this looks like one of the more straightforward ties of the knockout stage. Bosnia deserve credit for reaching this point, but the USA have looked like the more complete team throughout the tournament.

The Americans have impressed with their intensity, athleticism, and attacking football. They’ve shown they can dictate the tempo, create chances consistently, and punish opponents in transition. If they perform anywhere near the level they’ve shown in the group stage, they should simply have too much quality for Bosnia.

Bosnia are capable of making things difficult with their physicality and disciplined approach, but over the course of 90 minutes, the USA’s pace, depth, and overall quality should prove decisive.

Prediction: I expect the USA to progress comfortably to the Round of 16. While anything can happen in knockout football, this is a tie the Americans will rightly feel confident about.

Ivory Coast’s Round of 32 opponent will be either Norway or France, depending on who finishes second in the group. Either way, it’s an incredibly difficult draw for the Ivorians.

Ivory Coast have had an excellent World Cup and have shown exactly why they’re one of Africa’s strongest footballing nations. They’ve been competitive, resilient, and thoroughly deserved their place in the knockout stage. In many tournaments, their performances would have been enough to carry them even further.

However, whether they come up against Norway or France, the challenge is enormous. Norway possess incredible attacking firepower and physicality, while France remain one of the tournament favourites with world-class talent across the pitch. Both sides have the quality and experience to punish even the smallest mistakes.

Prediction: I think this is where Ivory Coast’s impressive run comes to an end. They deserve immense credit for their campaign, but regardless of whether it’s Norway or France standing across from them, I expect the European side to progress. Sorry, Ivory Coast—you’ve had a fantastic tournament, and you certainly deserved to go further.

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