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مع اقتراب موعد الانتخابات الرئاسية اللبنانية، تتزايد التساؤلات حول من يملك القرار الحقيقي في اختيار رئيس الجمهورية المقبل. في ظل الأوضاع الراهنة في لبنان والمنطقة، يظهر أن المعادلة أبعد ما تكون عن كونها محلية بحتة، بل يبدو أن للخارج دورًا حاسمًا، وربما الكلمة الفصل.
رغم تغير الإدارات الأمريكية بين الديمقراطيين والجمهوريين، يظهر أن التأثير الأكبر لا يأتي من الإدارة الحالية أو حتى المقبلة (برئاسة ترامب المحتملة)، بل من “الدولة العميقة” في الولايات المتحدة. هذه الشبكة القوية من المؤسسات غير المنتخبة، التي يُقال إنها تضع الاستراتيجيات طويلة الأمد، قد تكون الجهة التي ستحدد مسار الرئاسة اللبنانية. يبدو أن هذه الدولة العميقة تنظر إلى لبنان كجزء من استراتيجية إقليمية أوسع تشمل الشرق الأوسط بأكمله.
تحظى الانتخابات المنتظرة بآراء متباينة بين اللبنانيين. فالبعض يرى أن الانتخابات قد يتم تأجيلها نظرًا للتعقيدات السياسية والأمنية، فيما يعتقد آخرون أنها ستُجرى في موعدها رغم كل التحديات. كالعادة، هناك العديد من المرشحين الموارنة الذين يتنافسون على هذا المنصب، مما يزيد من حدة الجدل الداخلي ويُعقّد المسار الانتخابي.
الانقسام في الآراء ليس غريبًا، فهو يعكس طبيعة المشهد اللبناني المليء بالتجاذبات السياسية والطائفية. ومع ذلك، تبقى مسألة التأثيرات الخارجية في صميم النقاش، حيث يتساءل الكثيرون عن مدى استقلالية القرار اللبناني في هذه المرحلة
مع التحولات السياسية في المنطقة، خاصة ما يُعرف بـ”عصر الهيمنة الأمريكية-الإسرائيلية”، يتوقع البعض أن يتم اختيار رئيس يدعم هذا التوجه. ومع فتح باب الترشح لمجموعة واسعة من الأسماء، يبدو أن الدكتور سمير جعجع يبرز كمرشح بارز يحظى بدعم داخلي وخارجي. رؤيته السياسية وعلاقاته مع القوى الغربية والإقليمية قد تجعله في مقدمة السباق.
سمير جعجع، بصفته رئيس حزب القوات اللبنانية، يتمتع بتاريخ طويل من العمل السياسي ويُعتبر من الشخصيات الجدلية في السياسة اللبنانية. ولكنه أيضًا يُعتبر من أكثر الشخصيات التي تمتلك شبكة علاقات دولية قوية، مما قد يعزز فرصه في الوصول إلى الرئاسة.
بين التوقعات بالتأجيل وإمكانية حدوث الانتخابات، تبقى الحقيقة الوحيدة أن القرار النهائي قد لا يكون لبنانيًا بحتًا. في نهاية المطاف، ستتحدد هوية الرئيس المقبل بناءً على تقاطع المصالح الدولية والمحلية، مع كلمة حاسمة للدولة العميقة الأمريكية.
الانتخابات الرئاسية اللبنانية ليست مجرد استحقاق دستوري، بل هي جزء من صراع أوسع على مستقبل البلاد ودورها في المنطقة. وفي ظل هذه المعطيات، يبقى السؤال مفتوحًا: هل ستُجرى الانتخابات في موعدها؟ ومن سيقول الكلمة الفصل في تحديد الرئيس المقبل؟
Razouk²
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